How Great Ed Art?

[Arch Stanton]

I love me some Ed. If you believe - like I do - that Ed could grow back his arms and legs even if you cut them off with a rusty chain saw - then you have to vote on this poll.

[Jcrmoon42]

As good as he is, I just think the odds are against anybody reaching 3000. Doesn't mean it can't happen. Just means the odds are against it.

[cramsey51]

If you take a simple formula of 180 hits per year for 20 years, that's 3,600 hits. Then account for injuries or anything, 3,000 looks pretty attainable.

[Railroad_Ross]

If you take a simple formula of 180 hits per year for 20 years, that's 3,600 hits. Then account for injuries or anything, 3,000 looks pretty attainable.

I think I'd base it on a 15 year career. The likleyhood of 180 hits past age 34 is very low. Still 15*180=2700

[cramsey51]

That would only take him to the age of 33-34, I think he'll get a goodly amount of hits after that. So, I think you are agreeing with me, that 3,000 is a decent possibility.

Mantle is a good 'right now' sample. He hit 152 playing everyday last season at the age of 33 and is on pace for 172 this season at the age of 34. He also started a season and a half later. That said, he's averaged a little over 160 hits per season in 16 seasons if he finishes this season with 172 hits.

One other thing to note about Mantle is he took an awful lot more free passes than Kranepool seems to be taking.

[Jcrmoon42]

Favorite Toy says he has a 46% chance at this point which is awfully good for a guy his age. Young guys don't generally see figures higher than that. I'm just saying that the odds don't favor it. It is certainly possible, and if anybody is lined up to do it Ed's the guy. However, a lot of things have to fall in place for that to happen. He has to continue to produce. He has to stay relatively free from injuries. The Rectegods can't hear Detroit boasting about how great he is and strike him dead. That's a lot to ask!

[braveheart]

Favorite Toy says he has a 46% chance at this point which is awfully good for a guy his age. Young guys don't generally see figures higher than that. I'm just saying that the odds don't favor it. It is certainly possible, and if anybody is lined up to do it Ed's the guy. However, a lot of things have to fall in place for that to happen. He has to continue to produce. He has to stay relatively free from injuries. The Rectegods can't hear Detroit boasting about how great he is and strike him dead. That's a lot to ask!

Detroit? I hope Recte doesnt hear it from Detroit.

[Jcrmoon42]

Favorite Toy says he has a 46% chance at this point which is awfully good for a guy his age. Young guys don't generally see figures higher than that. I'm just saying that the odds don't favor it. It is certainly possible, and if anybody is lined up to do it Ed's the guy. However, a lot of things have to fall in place for that to happen. He has to continue to produce. He has to stay relatively free from injuries. The Rectegods can't hear Detroit boasting about how great he is and strike him dead. That's a lot to ask!

Detroit? I hope Recte doesnt hear it from Detroit.

Hey, Kirk is the one with the Krane-trumpet. You better talk to him or he's gonna bring the wrath down on you.

[Arch Stanton]

1045 hits at age 22, and he won't be 23 until the end of the season.

[braveheart]

In Ed we trust.

[7teen]

Ed just got hurt. Let the lumps begin!!!

[Arch Stanton]

Ed is so great, he plans his injuries for the end of the season.

[braveheart]

Ed just got hurt. Let the lumps begin!!!

You shut your mouth, or else I will come over there and go Bobby Knight on YOU.

[7teen]

Ed just got hurt. Let the lumps begin!!!

You shut your mouth, or else I will come over there and go Bobby Knight on YOU.

I take back what I said. Instead, I just hope Ed gets the same treatment as ... FRANK ROBINSON!!!!

[Arch Stanton]

1527 hits. 24 years old.

[PlinyTheElder]

Willie Crawford might make a run at 3000.

1034 hits at age of 22 turns 23 in September

[Arch Stanton]

1723 hits. He turns 26 next month.

[cramsey51]

Helping out Kirk...projects to have 2115 by season's end. Age 27.

[Arch Stanton]

Hi there. Ed update: 2627 hits at age 30 (okay, he'll be 31 next month).

The favorite toy says -

3000 hits - 97%
3500 hits - 62%
4000 hits - 21%
to pass Cobb - 13%